lord of the blog

« | Main | New Years Honours and Scientists »

Tuesday, December 30, 2003

Iraq response

I know the strength of feeling on Iraq but resorting to ‘liar, liar pants on fire’ tabloid style is no way to win an argument. Tony Blair does put a high priority on the danger of rogue states with weapons of mass destruction and terrorist organisations co-operating to create mayhem. He may be wrong to believe that and it is a good argument that says he might increase the danger. It is not a good argument to say that because no weapons were found he must be a liar! That is a daft argument and would mean that anyone who believed something that turned out to be incorrect would be a liar. Check your credentials here RonF before casting stones!

Secondly, whatever Tony Blair believes doesn’t mean we don’t have our own reasons for supporting the action. Check all the speeches in Hansard for 18.3.03 and you will find that I am not alone in playing down the WMD argument and emphasising the nature of the regime and the need to stabilise the Middle East. The jury is still out on this.

Ron, you are also wrong to say there is no effective pressure for change on other Arab countries, which have dodgy regimes. There is plenty and it’s having an effect whether in the development of democracy, the rule of law or women’s rights. The problem is it’s a race against time. We all know that rapid change can produce revolutionary situations, which then collapse into tyranny.

That leads you to the other dilemma of foreign policy. Any state needs a disciplined army and police force but getting that without training and equipping it still defies the best efforts of many countries and organisations that seek to help.

If we had a genuine system of international law Saddam Hussein would have been arrested and put in prison years ago. We don’t and that’s why the world has so much difficulty dealing with these situations. But don’t give up on this. If you visit Westminster Hall you will find a plaque marking the trial of Sir Thomas More who had his head cut off – which is a bit rough for someone who had just written a book called Utopia! Others were on trial for up to seven years. So 400 years or more ago we were working out the dividing lines between politics and law. We are doing much the same in international politics. It isn’t consistent and it won’t be for many decades yet but the movement is in the right direction.

The Israel/Palestine dispute does have to be resolved and Tony Blair is having a significant impact on US policy making but unlike Iraq you are dealing with several states which are in breach of UN resolutions. We need a Northern Ireland style approach to begin to solve this problem and that is what the Road Map is about. For Israel to build a wall across Palestinian territory is wrong and the US now agrees it is wrong and has cut their aid budget by the cost of the wall – a small gesture but not without significance

Finally we could have had an easy life by saying we wanted Saddam out but would let the US as the current great power do the dirty work so that we could enjoy the luxury of criticising them while feeling good that Saddam had gone. There is a choice Ron and although we can’t be sure of the outcome I think it will work not least because it has set in train a sequence of events which will make it far more difficult for other Arab regimes to resist reform. If that succeeds then the nightmare that has tormented the Arabs since the time of the Turkish Empire may begin to fade.

do you really think what 've written ? no regrets for Bush/Blair actions on middle east ?
Do you really think the world is more secure now ? it is the opposite. Owing to guy like Tony, you've shown to Arab Countries that they can't trust Occidental countries.

Tony/Georges will have to face huge responsabilities in front of the History.

just-for my information (I'm french), are you an official speaker of the "new labour" ?

fortunately, English people don't follow your mind.
The World says you're wrong. Facts prove you're wrong.

What is your plan to solve the situation ?
perhaps, the Domino Theory ?