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Tuesday, August 31, 2004

End of holiday

I’m back and refreshed after two weeks in Italy.

Meanwhile I note an ex Labour voter who doesn’t want to give their name hopes to discredit the Labour Party by posting a response inviting people to look at those organisations that have sponsored events and debates at the party conference.

I don’t know what saddens me most. The fact that they have to remain anonymous or the fact that they are one of the few remaining purists who believe the thought police should vet all organisations that seek to influence others.

Of course there are some groups you have to draw the line at but remember what a mess we got ourselves into when we tried to stop others putting across their views. In the 1980’s we had big debates about whether we would allow any advertising in a local Labour paper we were producing. We voted not to and the paper folded. We did however allow an advertising board on the wall of the Party rooms. We agonised over whether we should vet the companies first!

I think we have got wise to these absurdities and I think people who attend Party conferences can decide what stalls to visit and what meetings to go to.

My anonymous correspondent needs to free up his or her thinking.

Friday, August 13, 2004

Temporary response

Thanks for comments. There will now be a short intermission as I have fled the country for a while.

Normal service will be resumed as soon as possible!

Wednesday, August 11, 2004

Responses

Thanks for the information on sea levels. I will try and follow that up in due course. It would be nice if the tabloids could give some thoughtful coverage to issues as important as this. It might not get as much attention as Sven Erikkson’s sex life but it could help safe the planet – a minor point of course!

Dan, I really do think you ought to consider writing a pamphlet or article for publication. I don’t agree with all you say but you clearly feel strongly on these issues and you put a good case. Sorry if that sounds condescending but it certainly isn’t intended to.

I think you would need to decide if you were writing for a political audience when you can be more opinionated or a more academic one where research is important. Try it!

Incidentally the UK is doing a lot to support the emerging African organisations and has been for some years. This is a process and the problem in politics is that everyone wants quick solutions and they are just not available. I repeat the point in my Fabian pamphlet – it is the challenge of this century to get better policies in this area of failing states. Definitions are going to be inexact but the process of formulating policies helps to clarify them.

Global warming

Shortly before the very hot weather started I read a report about the rate ice was melting in Greenland. The scientists expressed acute concern about the sea level rising and the consequent flooding.

I had a quick look at a few web sites to see if there were any maps of the land area that would be left if the polar caps continue to melt at the present rate.

I couldn’t find any. Is there anyone out there worried enough to have done the research?

Tuesday, August 10, 2004

Responses

There are no absolute definitions of failing states but no one I know has too much trouble naming a few. It has been said before that defining an elephant is difficult but we all know if we have one in the kitchen!

Refugees will also tell you about failing states. The reason people flee states in large numbers is because the state is failing to protect them.

A rough working definition is a state that is unable to create a system of law and order throughout its territory and there are consequential collapses of authority often followed by famine and war. This is different to a dictatorship such as Saddam’s Iraq or Hitler’s Germany where order was enforced but in a particularly brutal way and without any safeguards against abuse of power.

Many countries are struggling to develop systems of law while every one crosses their fingers hoping they will succeed. Indonesia and Saudi are two obvious examples. Sudan is a failing state in the sense that it cannot retain order itself yet the government claims to have control of the situation. There is a welcome but rather late recognition by the Sudanese government that no one in the international community believes them.

No fly zones can help, as in Iraq, by preventing the use of air power to attack the minority groups. Remember villages in Darfur have been bombed. Because of the concern in Arab states about Western involvement we do have to be careful on this.

There is however a contradiction at the heart of Arab governments positions. Many of them have Western bases on their territory and I over flew Syria in an RAF jet just prior to the war in Iraq with the full co-operation of Syria. The explanation for this is that most of the governments in the region were scared witless by Saddam.

By far the best option as several people have been saying is to use the AU but it is still a very weak regional group. All the Western Governments I know have been trying to build it up into a credible force. Wouldn’t it be good if we could also get an Arab regional group?

All western governments have been giving aid and the UK and US have a good record on this. I know Ingrid will feel we are not doing enough and it is impossible to disagree with her but the same applies in so many of these situations which is why I bang on about the need for a more coherent UN set of policies.

Dan. I don’t know what other people do but I write my own articles and publish where I can. Why don’t you write one for the Fabians?

Julian. Thanks for your note about UK blogs.

Monday, August 09, 2004

Sudan and failing states

Joe and Ingrid along with others have asked for my views on Sudan.

It is difficult to give these in a concise form and I am hoping (not promising!) to write another Fabian pamphlet dealing with the type of policy we need to intervene in failing states.

I made the point in the last Fabian pamphlet that currently the world lurches between doing nothing as in Rwanda or intervening with heavily armed troops as in Afghanistan and Iraq. In between there are cases like Somalia where the world’s intervention failed and East Timor where it succeeded but not until much of the damage had been done.

Sudan is just the latest in a long line of failed or failing states and I very much fear this is going to be the pattern for many years yet which is why the world does need to have a clearer policy.

Kofi Anan has a high level panel looking at this problem and it may be ready to report at the end of the year. If so, we should use that to move the debate forward.

Unfortunately none of this will save any lives in Sudan. Both the US and the UK have done more then many other countries and the international pressure on the Sudanese government does seem to be having a limited effect. The French are also actively helping the nascent African peacekeeping force.

I don’t think a full military intervention is practical in the present situation and in any case could not be put into effect quickly enough to stop the ethnic cleansing.

There are two possible actions which might help. One is a no fly zone of the type we imposed on Saddam Hussein and the other is the indictment of key people giving the orders. (See Ann Clwyd’s contribution included in the text of my Fabian pamphlet)

The world is still a very long way from getting international agreement on how to deal with these situations and consequently the UN always finds it very difficult to act.

I do believe this issue is second only to global warming as the biggest challenge of this century.

Sunday, August 08, 2004

Flower power

Here is a story for August. I got a letter and brochure from a charity called Plantlife (http://www.plantlife.org.uk) which is encouraging counties and towns to vote for a flower to represent their area.

London voted for the rosebay willow herb as seen on many a derelict site (and my garden!). Lancashire had voted for a red rose so I quickly checked Yorkshire in case the war of the roses was about to start up again! Fortunately they had chosen the very peaceful harebell.

So there is now a contest to find the flower to represent Acton and one for Shepherds Bush and although I only represent a small part of Chiswick I think we should have a flower for them too or I will get into trouble with chiswickW4.com . Any offers?

Wednesday, August 04, 2004

Sven Eriksson, football and sex

I am no great expert on football but I didn’t realise that being employed as England’s manager required sexual abstinence! Should the next advert for the job only be circulated to Monasteries?

The tabloids are at it again. So the FA made a big mistake by simply refusing to comment but do the people caught up in this row really have to resign because of consensual sex between adults?

If they do then let’s take a closer look at the editors, owners and journalists involved – or do they live in Monasteries and Nunneries. It seems a bit unlikely!

Any information from people in the know may enable me to build on my dossier of dodgy editors and associates.

Details in confidence please and see my previous entries about these issues.

Tuesday, August 03, 2004

Responses

Thanks to Lucy for the post on Phoenix High. I heard about the tragic death of Kieran – it is a dreadful warning to kids thinking of stealing phones or carrying knives. Kieran paid the price for the stupidity of others who have also wasted their lives.
I think Phoenix High is doing really well and I’m pleased you are hoping to get A, s and B’s. BUT you won’t get them if you write an English paper in text. Beware, text is great on mobiles but not for more complex messages in life!

Fari had a look at the William and Ellen Craft post and wants me to come on a programme. Please contact me at the House of Commons. Phone interviews are fairly easy to organise.